ABSTRACT
Many past studies have simplified the stages ofterrorist action into three or five stages. Whenbroken down further, however, virtually all terrorist events are actually comprised of ten distinct phases. These phases are made up of the logical actions inherent in any group’s decision-making process. All terrorist operations have a predictable sequence. No matter how many members of a terrorist organization are involved, the operation will eventually include some visible component of the following phases:
Phase 1 Decision-Making Period Phase 2 Intelligence Collection Cell Deployment and Infiltration Phase 3 Final Target Selection and Planning Phase 4 Tactical Operations and Logistic Cell Deployment Phase 5 Tactical Operations Go-No Go Decision Phase 6 Tactical Operations Movement to Target Phase 7 Tactical Action Phase Phase 8 Withdrawal and Extraction Phase Phase 9 Regroup, Rearm, and Exfiltration Phase 10 Negotiation / Credit/ Debriefing and Lessons Learned Real people are making real decisions that may
eventually manifest into real action-which should motivate you to try to predict the events that will occur. If any part of this ten-phase sequence is observed, then you are forearmed with the knowledge of what should occur next.
