ABSTRACT
Scenario Analysis A scenario is an event that could possibly occur under particular circumstances. A scenario can be real or make-believe. Scenario development is used in project management to support organizational effectiveness with respect to competency development and capacity building. Scenarios help organizations to outline strategies and develop solutions. Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future situations by considering alternative outcomes. Scenario analysis can be used to uncover “wild cards.” For example, analysis of the possibility of a tsunami impacting Hawaii is low, the damage inflicted is so high that the event is much more important (threatening) than the low probability (in any one year) alone would suggest.
