ABSTRACT
Most people understand the world is not a neat and orderly place, that day-to-day activity is buffeted by complexity, and that success means helping others find a plausible course of action in a challenging environment. People in charge, however, often provide direction that is shaped by intuition, sometimes emotion, or far too often, comparisons that assign judgment based on the amount of negative or positive movement in financial data. Although seemingly sound, following this guidance for action can be mostly a gamble.
