ABSTRACT
In the 1930s, the Gaussian distribution, with a symmetrical bell-shaped probability density, was used to represent extreme wind speeds, and for the prediction of long-term design wind speeds. This chapter discusses modern approaches to the use of extreme value analysis for prediction of extreme wind speeds for the design of structures. It also discusses related aspects of structural design and safety. A useful review of the various methodologies available for the prediction of extreme wind speeds, including those discussed in this chapter, was given by Palutikof et al. The standard deviations of extreme wind predictions can also be obtained using the bootstrapping approach. Several attempts have been made to predict extreme winds from knowledge of the parent distribution of wind speeds, and thus make predictions from quite short records of wind speed at a site. Limit-states design is a rational approach to the design of structures, which has now become accepted around the world.
