ABSTRACT
Much has been written in Western literature about the causes of the periodic Soviet grain shortfalls. This chapter analyzes the literature supporting climatic explanations for Soviet grain shortfall, and the question of whether the Soviet agricultural sector has reached diminishing returns in relation to technological inputs. It presents a computer model which will test the two hypotheses: that weather is the dominant factor underlying trends in Soviet grain production; and that Soviet grain output has reached diminishing returns in relation to technological inputs, particularly fertilizer application. The chapter aims to determine to what extent technological and meteorological factors affect grain production in the Soviet Union. The data base differed from that of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). The CIA study is the only detailed macrolevel statistical analysis of the impact of climate change on grain production, and because of its potentially significant policy implications, it warrants detailed scrutiny.
