ABSTRACT
This chapter describes the economic and energy performance parameters associated with the Reference Case Scenario. Reducing the energy intensity of the economy or, equivalently, increasing the gross economic efficiency of energy use, depends on increases in the technical efficiency of energy conversion and end use, technical progress in the economy as a whole, and structural changes in spending, input, and output patterns. Electricity is projected to play an increasingly important role in the nation's overall energy system. From 1980 to 1985, slower growth in energy demand is accompanied by a shift away from oil and gas and toward electricity and coal. Since electricity is the least efficient form of energy, the time pattern of energy shares disguises a continuing and significant decline in delivered energy use per unit of output. Demand trends in nonenergy manufacturing are marked by stability, both in final spending and as a productive input.
