ABSTRACT
The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) and a defensive transition cannot effect a benign transformation in the politics of East-West competition, but it may, and only may, serve to buy time for the alleviation and resolution of political differences. Only in the presence of multi-layered strategic defences would the super-powers be able to endorse a very radical scale of nuclear disarmament. With such defences, East and West could live with a disarmament treaty that would not be verifiable with absolute confidence. By way of a contingent prediction, if Soviet leaders believe that US offensive forces will fare considerably better against Soviet defences than will Soviet offensive forces against US defences, then they should be motivated to agree to negotiated reductions in offensive forces. If the political structure of Soviet-American relations remains much as today, then there will be a need to find strategic substitutes for the nuclear threat to the Soviet homeland.
