ABSTRACT
The GFDL model that predicts the extreme heat and dryness in the mid-continent of North America produces radically different results from the NCAR climate model, largely because of the way the two parameterize soil moisture in the spring. Just a simple thing like whether the soil is full of water creates a tremendous difference in the outcome of the models. Lashoffs analysis indicates that if all the feedbacks are positive, then the greenhouse effect will be much more severe than even the general circulation model (GCM) modelers predict. This chapter analyzes how a particular region of the United States—the four-state region of Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas—would respond to a replay of the 1930s exactly as it occurred. Growth chamber and greenhouse research with carbon dioxide fertilization have also shown that CO2 moderates the effect of drought stress, salinity stress, and to some extent, phosphorus deficiency in the region.
