ABSTRACT
A rational evaluation of criminal justice policy measures designed to fight crime would seem to be relatively straightforward. In trying to assess the possibility of reducing the crime problem in America, it is helpful to consider some historical and comparative data. The tone of the Council's report could hardly have been more alarming if crime had been increasing sharply, the crime-scare industry reaps large rewards from propagating bad news about crime, and its mission can be accomplished only if periods of declining crime are met with an even greater blast of crime-scare propaganda. The Council's report was accurate to the extent that it suggested that, the growing teenage population will provide an upward impetus to crime. If the criminal conduct of the individuals who receive the benefits of prevention programs falls by twenty percent, true savings will result only if the criminal conduct of non-treated individuals does not rise to offset in some substantial way the fall in crime.
