ABSTRACT

The emerging national policy environment of the 1980s provides ample evidence of the challenge to a solar energy transition. A solar transition will require fundamental changes in political economy. The environment for energy choice, both in terms of markets and policies, will have to be expanded, and the expansion will necessitate actions which will destabilize energy politics and economics. The changes in political economy which accompanied each of electricity transitions may well be overshadowed by those needed for a solar transition. The conflicts that might accompany a solar transition are by no means limited to issues of political and economic scale. In the environment there are at least three strategies of dynamic conservatism that challenge the prospect of a solar transition: denial, containment and crisis control. The expectation that a solar transition is inevitable frequently reflects an abiding faith not only in solar's technical superiority but also in its economic efficiency.