ABSTRACT
In the face of increasing Chinese political, diplomatic, economic and military pressure, Taiwan’s future appears ever more uncertain. For some observers, its eventual unification with mainland China is all but inevitable. This chapter argues, however, that Taiwan’s strategic future might be much less pessimistic than is often assumed owing to three interrelated factors: China’s limited power to compel Taiwan into giving up its de facto independence; Taiwan’s societal, political, economic and military resilience; and the growing importance of Taiwan for the United States, its informal security ally, and other critical powers in the context of increasing major power competition in East Asia. In a more uncertain East Asia, Taiwan’s chances of survival as a thriving democracy have not necessarily diminished, provided it plays its cards right.
