ABSTRACT
While improvements in cross-Strait relations during Ma Ying-jeou’s administration (2008–16) contributed to regional stability and was welcomed in Washington as well as in Beijing and Taipei, fundamental issues, ranging from sovereignty to mutual recognition, from Taiwan’s international space to its status in any future cross-Strait political negotiations, remained unresolved. Since the Democratic Progressive Party’s Tsai Ing-wen came to power in 2016, cross-Strait relations have rapidly deteriorated. Beijing has cut off regular official contacts while implementing strong measures aimed at further isolating Taiwan. At the same time, the cross-Strait military balance has continued to tilt in the mainland’s favour, raising the concern that Beijing may resort to the use of force in order to achieve reunification. The United States has played a crucial role in helping to maintain cross-Strait stability over the past four decades. However, under the Trump Administration, Washington has implemented a series of measures aimed at strengthening US-Taiwan ties, but these in turn have further undermined the fragile cross-Strait relationship and run the risk of military confrontation.
