ABSTRACT
Energy transition to low carbon accelerates the move to electric vehicles (EV) in transportation sector. With 3 million EV in 2017 the expects to reach 100 million cars on the horizon of 2030. This could possibly generate 11 million spent EV battery by 2030. Electric battery is key component of EV and its sourcing (raw materials as lithium, cobalt, rare earths) faces challenges of environmental impact, ethics concern, uneven distribution of reserves and risk of supply. On the background of clean and “green” image of EV, battery creates concerns. The paper aims to find the solution of circular economy approach by closing the loop in battery lifetime by recycling, which would mean responsible and sustainable approach. Recycling industry misses spent batteries volumes and it is considered as not economically viable in current conditions. The paper defines potential uncertainties for recycling industry development by proposing probability tool to navigate better in electric vehicle recycling future.
