ABSTRACT
The yield factor was varied as a surrogate for climatic change to examine the response of production, exports, imports, crop prices, reserve levels and global starvation. Although, on average, global food supply currently exceeds demand by about 20 per cent, its year-to-year variation can reduce supply in certain years to levels where it is barely sufficient to meet requirements. Changes in the frequency of yield-reducing weather events such as droughts and warm spells due to long-term climatic change, about which very little is known, are thus likely to be critical to food security. The indications are that yield reductions of up to 20 per cent in the major mid-latitude grain-exporting regions could be tolerated without a major interruption of global food supplies. However, the increase in food prices could seriously influence the ability of food-deficit countries to pay for food imports, eroding the amount of foreign currency available for promoting development of their non-agricultural sectors.
