ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses a combined drought index (CDI) and prediction model of crop yield anomalies in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) Basin. The combination of weights that gave the highest correlation coefficient between the CDI and the crop yield anomaly was finally selected as the best set of weights for the CDI. The chapter explores the combined drought index was developed by optimizing the relative weights for each index to maximize correlation between the CDI and crop yield anomalies. The impact-based CDI, and the individual drought indices it comprises, were used to test to what extent a linear regression model could predict crop yield anomalies in the UBN Basin. The annual crop yield data that have been collected for each administrative zone represents the main rainy season in the basin. The chapter presents the result obtained employing the crop yield prediction model based on the linear regression approach.
