ABSTRACT
This last chapter serves as both an analysis of the empirical chapters and a conclusion for the book. The analysis summarizes the overall success rate of the model. The model has a prediction success rate of 67.4% (29 correctly predicted actions out of 42 possible) for the earlier rivalry and a rate of 63.6% (14 of 22) for the contemporary rivalry. I then look at the prediction success rate of the model in other ways, including by each value of the dependent variable and by country. The most interesting results are that the prediction success rate flips for China and Japan between the two rivalry periods – Japan is more successfully predicted in the first rivalry and China in the second rivalry. Moreover, escalatory acts are more successfully predicted than other values of the dependent variable. The chapter concludes by suggesting paths for future research.
