ABSTRACT

This chapter examines the continuing relevance of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban (CTB) that has been negotiated at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva. It describes the effects the CTB will have on nuclear programmes and decision making in the nuclear weapon states, the threshold states and non-nuclear weapon states of proliferation concern. The chapter suggest that some states will indeed maintain their nuclear weapon arsenals and options under the CTB and one or two may even undertake some modernization. The CTB will foreclose a number of technologies to all three groups of states and will probably be signed and ratified by all of them with few exceptions. China's ability to modernize is likely to be severely curtailed by the CTB. The CTB will reinforce the effect of India's observation of the current norm against testing and thereby foreclose the fusion bomb option.