ABSTRACT
CPB uses a macroeconometric model as the core of its forecasting process. Moreover, we maintain a system of leading indicators, as it has proved to be a useful instrument in spotting turning points in economic activity. Our system of leading indicators has a similar kind of disaggregation as our macroeconometric model. This facilitates the incorporation of information from the indicators in the model-based-forecasts by means of add-factors in specific behavioral equations. Moreover, this approach has the advantage that we can analyze the Dutch business cycle in more detail.
