ABSTRACT

This chapter presents a discrete convolution methodology for probabilistic load flow (PLF) of the active distribution system (ADS) considering correlated uncertainties. It focuses on wind power to simplify the description. The chapter also focuses on analysis and modeling of the uncertain component, that is , the forecast error of the load and wind power output. Note that because the proposed uncertainty analysis method is able to handle arbitrary probability distributions, both the output wind power and photovoltaics can be modeled. The chapter provides two formulation techniques for the ADS to facilitate the use of dependent probabilistic sequence operation in the PLF calculation. First, the uncertainties in the ADS are modeled using discrete probability distributions and copula functions. Second, an improved linearized power flow that considers reactive power and nodal voltage is proposed to linearize the relationship of the nodal voltage and injections.