ABSTRACT
Bioenergy trade is based on first-generation biofuels, which are tied up to agricultural markets. Over a long period of time, energy systems dynamics studies show that a logistical substitution model correlates well the market penetration data of primary energy sources. The long-term view for bioenergy is obviously more complex as technology innovation in many fields will shape the way people live and work and the demand for mobility. Recent trends point out the prospect of a medium- to long-term transition towards electricity-based mobility and to renewable wind and solar power generation. If a significant scale of biofuels can be achieved in the long-term future, supplementing the supply of first-generation biofuels, then perhaps a structural base for markets could be established to move from opportunistic trade to a more stable, structured and sustainable trade. The inception in the mid-1970s and early 1980s, and the rapid growth of the global biofuels market since the mid-2000s resulted from government policies.
