ABSTRACT
The role of the common enemy necessitating that truce may be assigned to the joint problem of managing survival in the presence of economic and ecological threats of regional and global scopes, cultural clashes, and unequal distribution of resources. The construction of weapons does not depend on the way science is controlled, or the arms industry is controlled, but on the threat perceptions of governments and populations. The arms race was not stopped by changes in political systems or by the decade-long diplomatic negotiations. It was stopped by a change in the threat perceptions. The change in the threat perceptions came first. The reduction in arms followed. There are potential developments that can be foretold because they are the consequence of human actions. If a major catastrophe is among these possibilities with a non-negligible probability, then it would be irresponsible to assume that this event will not happen.
