ABSTRACT
After fiscal trends and economic thought on public debt are reviewed in the previous chapter, statistical modeling is conducted to assess the determinants of state per capita debt levels. Based primarily on decennial measurements by the U.S. Census, this chapter analyzes trends in American state indebtedness from 1920 to 1990, the longest such review in the literature. Independent variables typical of other studies are included, such as personal income, state revenue, intergovernmental revenue, measures of centralization, ideology measures, and budget rules. Additional variables that have not received much consideration in similar models also are included: religious makeup, voter turnout, and the distribution of city size. Importantly for this study, a synthetic variable is derived that uses criminal and civil faction as a measure of injustice, or the lack of the common good, with the assumption being that citizens less capable of preserving the common good among themselves are less likely to attain the common good between themselves and future generations; they are more likely to use debt to benefit the present at the expense of the future. Many of these variables are found to be significant in explaining state debt levels, including the measure of injustice.
