ABSTRACT
This chapter focuses on the certainty of punishment component of the expected punishment, made up of the probability of apprehension and the probability of conviction. The chapter begins with a brief primer on empirical analysis, then offers an example of a typical empirical crime study. Empirical studies on how policing manpower and technology impact the crime rate are discussed. Particular attention is made to the reverse causation problem in which the hiring of more police can lead to less crime, but more crime can lead to the hiring of more police. A brief section discusses empirical studies that examine the link between the probability of conviction and crime rates. The chapter concludes with pointing out some of the difficulties involved in undertaking empirical analysis.
