ABSTRACT
A standing objective for intelligence has been to promote open-mindedness among analysts. This entails a willingness to challenge whatever dominant view emerges on a given intelligence issue. To determine a foreign target's most probable course of action, alternative analysis offers alternatives to the prevailing view or conventional wisdom, then tests all views to see which is best supported, and thus most likely to be correct. Alternative analysis used in the intelligence business necessarily faces a standard that is tougher than any by which it would be judged in an academic setting. Shortcomings in the historical and ongoing treatment of alternative views are also seen in the Intelligence Community's (IC) estimative process. An analytic approach can hardly solve the problem of putting the right bureaucratic ducks in order, but it can help deal with the way analysts think about the threat problem. Coherent process of testing can strengthen collective judgments on the probability of a given threat, particularly in severe consequences.
