ABSTRACT
Statistical probability analysts would have a much tougher job judging the nature and likelihood of a looming threat in intelligence analysis. Performance records are meagre for intelligence and are likely to remain so for security and bureaucratic reasons. Any methodology for threat analysis, aspiring to include a respectable amount of scientific rigor and objectivity, must figure out how to accommodate foreign behaviour that does not play by its rules. Statistical probability analysis will have to deal with determinations of consistency and inconsistency in the data it uses for its probability calculations. The author's method makes special efforts to ensure transparency by providing test charts displaying data support for particular hypotheses and appropriate easily understood backup for them. Transparency is greatly aided, moreover, by the fact that the math is very simple—no complex algorithms are involved. Advances in computing power do hold promise for statistical probability analysis as a threat analysis tool.
