ABSTRACT
This chapter provides a framework to sharpen the focus of precinct analysis with demographic or geographic data, as well as methods to prioritize precincts in targeting efforts. Targeting voters for persuasion and activation is central to winning a down-ballot campaign. Candidates are elected that disproportionately prioritize the interests of older demographics, which perpetuates the cynicism of younger voters. Predictors of voter participation provide a less precise but cost-effective shortcut that may help campaign narrow its focus onto lazier groups. The five most reliable indicators, in order, are as follows: voting history; education; income; absentee voting; and age. Campaign vendors specializing in direct mail will have access to voting histories. Direct mail typically falls into three categories: advocacy, comparison, and attack. Advocacy ads are the weakest in terms of voter activation and work best for incumbents. Voters regard comparison pieces as the most honest and trustworthy.
