ABSTRACT
In addressing the first question, I will describe an approach to model building applicable to complex systems. I offer the view of someone familiar with the variety of behaviors possible in a nonlinear dynamical system and the capabilities and limitations of time series models. I hope this will bring a different perspective to the field and encourage a réévaluation of current modeling techniques. As an outsider to the field I do not presume to attempt to survey the literature on earthquake modeling and prediction. For a timely review in the spirit of this article, see Gabrielov and Newman.4
