ABSTRACT
This chapter deals with the consequences of a divisive nomination race. According to many analysts, those consequences are highly negative: A long and divisive nomination race severely scars the eventual nominee, making it vastly more difficult for him to achieve victory in the general election. It takes a closer look at some of the data traditionally offered in support of the divisive primary hypothesis, in order to show that once the model is properly specified, the apparent relationship between primary and general election outcomes simply dissolves. To increase the number of cases available for analysis, studies of the divisive primary in presidential elections have generally focused on the relationship between primary results and general election voting across states. But the influence of divisive primaries may go beyond general party supporters and decrease the willingness of party workers to help campaign in the general election. The impact of divisive primaries may extend to nonsupporters of the party.
