ABSTRACT

Richard von Mises proposed a model for probability whose main aim was to provide a sound statistical basis for probability theory. "Thus, a probability theory which does not introduce from the very beginning a connection between probability and relative frequency is not able to contribute anything to the study of reality." In 1933 Kolmogoroff laid down some axioms for probability. The weak law of large numbers encourages one to think that the average of many repetitions will give an estimate of the underlying probability. The reliability of the model of probability based on gambling and rigorous mathematics transmits little support to this area of application, but users try to claim reliability for their results. There are a large number of different subjective probability theories. Other subjectivists are more frank about things, and consider that any betting on a horse race is a matter of a local, transient opinion of an individual.