ABSTRACT
This chapter looks at two historical political trends: congressional versus presidential dominance, and divided versus unified government. It explores Stephen Skowronek's theory of political time, which argues that there are dominant political regimes in US political history, that these regimes are cyclical in nature, and that presidents located at different points within a regime cycle face very different opportunities and constraints for exercising leadership. Although Skowronek makes one of the most compelling arguments for the impact of historical time on presidential power, his theory is not without gaps and issues. In The Presidential Character, James David Barber attempts to explain and predict how well presidents of different personality types will fare in office. According to Barber's theory, Bill Clinton's reelection in 1996 was one of conflict, George W. Bush's election in 2000 was one of conscience, and his reelection in 2004 was one of conciliation.
