ABSTRACT
This chapter provides comparison between changes that are long term and enduring versus those that are temporary and short-lived. It shows the distinction between changes that occur quite rapidly and abruptly and those that are more gradual and take place over an extended period of time. The chapter explores three kinds of change–abrupt long-lasting changes, gradual long-lasting changes, and short-term changes–both as general phenomena and with specific reference to the events of 1992. The chapter discusses the short-term electoral change attribute such shifts to three general factors: policy issues, the performance record of the incumbent administration, and the characteristics of the candidates. It argues that whenever a striking or anomalous election result occurs, the initial assumption should always be that it is a product of short-term forces, not a critical turning point. It summarizes little controversy among those who study American electoral politics.
