ABSTRACT
Arms supplies or the denial of them appear to be relatively unreliable in controlling or ending wars or conflicts already under way. In theory, strategic suppliers such as the United States are expected to be more manipulative about arms transfers than commercial suppliers. Commercial suppliers care less about the influence and concentrate instead on the revenues or jobs generated by arms exports. Presumably they also care less about the identity or political allegiance of the recipient and more about its credit ratings and ability to pay. The gray market grows when government officials at least "look the other way" as their agencies arrange for arms to be sent to foreign groups and countries for profit, strategic calculation. The black market involves unlawful or unapproved transfers by private arms dealers and smugglers. Among sub-national actors, the black market probably is of greatest importance to drug cartels.
