ABSTRACT
The threat of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, very long range delivery systems, and more lethal conventional weapons may radically change the balance of power and deterrence in the region. The Arab-Israeli balance is shaped largely by the conventional balance between Israel and its immediate neighbors—Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria—the so-called ring states. The factors raise serious doubts about the value of any assessment of the Arab-Israeli balance that simply counts the total size of Israel’s forces relative to those of the largest potential threat. The Arab-Israeli military balance shapes much of the security situation in the Middle East. Israeli political support for the peace process is uncertain and Israeli public opinion is becoming increasingly polarized. Yitzak Rabin was assassinated by an Israeli extremist in an effort to end Israel’s support for peace, and a far less supportive or even hostile government may come to power.
