ABSTRACT
Egypt seems likely to stick to its commitment to peace as long as it retains a moderate secular government, and there seems to be steadily less prospect that Islamic extremists will come to power. Egypt has done a far better job of reestablishing its internal security than Algeria, and has sharply reduced the capability of its extremists to threaten its armed forces. There is, however, at least some possibility that Egypt’s economic and political problems could eventually lead to the kind of political upheaval that could bring an extremist Islamic government to power. Egypt might also alter the balance without attacking, if it responded to some crisis in the peace process by remilitarizing part or all of the Sinai—perhaps over an issue like Jerusalem. Egypt is substantially less capable of modernizing its entire force structure with currently foreseeable Egyptian military budgets and US aid than Israel.
