ABSTRACT
The contingency that might involve Jordan in any near term conflict is a Jordanian alliance with Syria, or the creation of some broader Arab “Eastern Front.” Any Syrian-Jordanian attack would require significant political changes in Jordanian-Syrian relations and long preparation to be effective. The Jordanian-Israeli peace treaty forbids the kind of Iraqi-Jordanian joint exercises and Iraqi movements to Jordan that took place before the Gulf War. A Jordanian war with Israel would probably be devastating for Jordan, in spite of the considerable professionalism of Jordan’s military forces. Such a war would complicate Israel’s military problems, and Jordanian support of Palestinian forces in the West Bank might put considerable strain on the Israel Defense Forces and Israel’s economy. A large scale Syrian-Jordanian attack might also remove many of the constraints Israel might have in terms of launching strategic attacks on Jordan and Syria.
