ABSTRACT
This chapter questions the conventional conceptions of political change when it comes to the domestic politics of the Arab Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the twenty-first century. It covers one external source of change influencing the region, most dramatically expressed in Iraq in 2003. The chapter argues that the most prevalent theories explaining the origins of democratization and liberalization are hard to apply to MENA political systems. It also argues that MENA regionalists intent on explaining the logic of authoritarianism leave little room for theorizing or testing hypotheses about change. The chapter outlines each of the four drivers present in some MENA states and explains how the drivers are creating trends toward political change by focusing on specific cases from the region. It proposes sidelined international influences—whether regional conflicts, Western democracy promotion, or global economic recovery—these factors will also determine the extent of political change over the next ten years.
