ABSTRACT

This introduction presents an overview of the key concepts discussed in the subsequent chapters of this book. The book analyzes irrationality. It specifies exactly what types of conclusions and beliefs deserve the term irrational. The book examines the structure of irrational conclusions. Differing views of social conclusions and policies, however, are often not just a matter of opinion. Sometimes, there is very little way of evaluating the validity of one view or an opposing one. The book explains exactly what constitutes such irrationality and shows how it occurs in selected social contexts. Understanding statistical inferences—and being able to distinguish between rational and irrational ones—has become particularly important in recent years, as judges and juries are increasingly asked to evaluate claims of harm based on statistical evidence. The book presents three examples: the alternative consists of a single possibility: living as opposed to dying, no disaster as opposed to disaster, not being abused as opposed to being abused.