ABSTRACT
Forecasts are part and parcel of policy making. Governments deploy military forces and construct weapons systems on the basis of forecasts of actions by potential future enemies. The political salience of many forecasts and the technical complexity of the forecasting process combine to create for the forecaster an important ethical dilemma. Public policy heightens this dilemma by requiring through laws and regulations forecasts which are supposedly technically objective and politically neutral, while distributing political rewards to those whose forecasts prove their positions most emphatically. Little attention has been given in the field of public administration to the role which forecasting plays in decision making. Even less attention has been given in the education of policy makers and technical experts to the ethical dimensions of forecasting. The role of forecasts in policy making is fascinating largely because it always involves an inherent dilemma of circularity.
