ABSTRACT
Discerning the conditions that shape political trends is one of the more demanding challenges facing political commentators. In general, there are two competing interpretations of how social change has shaped which party and issues have come to dominate American politics. Each interpretation calls attention to particular trends and makes an argument about the impact on political debates and electoral divisions. Since the 1930s much of the Democrats' success has come from their ability to portray the national government as a means to respond to national problems and to present themselves as the party willing to use that power. Republicans increasingly argue that their skepticism toward government represents the majority position, as reflected in the declining public trust in the national government. The population moving to the Sunbelt is presumed to be more affluent, more likely to adhere to the spirit of individualism that has dominated in these states, and therefore more likely to vote Republican.
