ABSTRACT
This study aimed to 1) examine the overall data of agricultural products imported from Laos to Thailand via the Chong-Mek border, 2) find a reliable forecasting model for imported agricultural products, and 3) forecast the value of selected agricultural products to be imported from Laos to Thailand. All data were collected from the website of Chong-Mek customs house. The results indicate that 79.75% of the total products imported from Laos to Thailand were agricultural products. From the fiscal year 2008–2016, cabbage was the best imported product with an import value of 2,681 million USD. Chipped cassava was the second best with an import value of 1,970 million USD. Several forecasting models were applied to the total imported data, including 1) simple linear regression, 2) moving average, 3) exponential smoothing, and 4) double exponential smoothing. We found that simple linear regression and exponential smoothing were the most reliable forecasting models with minimum forecast errors. The 5-year forecast results indicate that the demand for cabbage, chipped cassava, sweet potato, and green banana from Laos is expected to increase to 782.52, 904.25, 149.93, and 121.97 million USD in the fiscal year 2021.
