ABSTRACT

In the next few years the government of the United States will

make decisions regarding the renewal of its nuclear forces that

will have huge implications for the security of the country and

its allies, its public finances and the salience of nuclear weapons

in global politics. Current plans provide for spending an esti-

mated US$1 trillion over 30 years to modernise or replace the

full triad of air-, land-and sea-based nuclear weapons.1 This would amount to renewing the Cold War-era nuclear arsenal as a central part of US security strategy, rather than restructuring

the force in a manner that would acknowledge fundamental

changes in the security environment and seek to lead the world

in a strategic transition away from nuclear weapons. While the planned timescale for the complete modernisation

or replacement of the triad exceeds 30 years, key decisions on

most major weapons-system procurement will occur during the

next decade. Most of the current warheads and delivery vehi-

cles will reach the end of their designed operational lifetimes at various points over the next 20 years. Facilities to produce

or refurbish nuclear warheads in the enduring stockpile also

require modernisation, consolidation and improved safety.