ABSTRACT
In the story of Chapters 5 and 6, all uncertainty came with objective probability numbers attached. This isn’t a theory that works in applications where it isn’t clear “what the odds are.” For example, if I’m going to bet on the outcome of a horse race in which three horses, say Kelso, Swaps and Trigger are running, the theory in the previous chapters doesn’t help me decide between the gambles depicted in figure 7.1. To choose between two gambles, I have to decide how likely are the three outcomes and then combine those judgments with my attitude towards the risk involved.
