ABSTRACT
The balance of power between China, Taiwan and the United States (US) has traditionally been thought of in straightforward military terms. The complex balance of power underpinning the China US triangle is shifting, and increasing the prospect of military escalation. As the military imbalance between Taiwan and the mainland grows, and as China’s ability to deny the US access to this theatre continues to improve, Beijing’s incentives for resolving this dispute through the use of force will only increase. The growing array of economic incentives and coercive instruments that an increasingly assertive China is using to pressure Taiwan is exacerbating the shifts and making the balance between the three powers even more complex. The cross-strait military balance began to shift decisively in China’s favour. Taiwan also enjoyed a qualitative military edge over China for much of the Cold War.
