ABSTRACT

This chapter aims to assess the policy options most commonly contemplated in relation to this flashpoint. It outlines potential diplomatic approaches, including a cross-strait peace treaty, China’s preferred ‘one country, two systems’ model, or a ‘grand bargain’ between China and the US. The chapter considers an enhanced US commitment to defend the island. The idea of a Sino-American grand bargain in which the US abandons Taiwan is not new. Indeed, this was arguably the exact path taken by Nixon and Kissinger when the US normalised diplomatic relations with China during the 1970s. The idea of a peace agreement persists. Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang chairman Wu Den-yih unexpectedly indicated during a February 2019 interview that if his party regained the presidency in 2020, it would seek to negotiate a peace treaty with the mainland.