Algorithm of probabilistic estimates oil field reserves and creation program for mitigation key uncertainties (on the example of the “X” field)

In article global experience in probabilistic reserves estimation was analyzed to generalize the algorithm for probabilistic estimation of reserves by a volumetric method using the example of field X. Based on this analysis, a probabilistic assessment of geological reserves was per-formed using 3D geological modeling. Using a tornado diagram, key uncertainties were identi-fied and a geological prospecting program was proposed aimed at geological risk mitigation.