chapter  7
22 Pages

Beyond the demographic dividend

WithCai Fang

Demographic dividend comes from the special properties of population structure, especially the age structure. These kinds of properties can earn some additional advantages for economic growth and support higher potential growth rate. Change having more turning nature was that according to the demographic data, the 15–59-year-old working-age population peaked in 2010 and entered a negative growth period thereafter; absolute reduction was millions per year, and the predicted reduction of the population will be 29.34 million in the period from 2010 to 2020. China’s economy started to change gradually from a typical dual economic development process to the neoclassical growth stage after transcending the Lewis turning point and losing the demographic dividend. After demographic dividend disappears, infinite labor supply is no longer the characteristic of China’s economic development. Accordingly, the phenomenon of diminishing returns on capital has intensified. Since China stepped across the Lewis turning point, job positions have increased that have more robust demand for low-skilled labors.