ABSTRACT
Eight factors are considered here – impeachment, patriotism, building the wall, trade wars, the Democrats, the Republicans, hubris, and revolt from supporters. In relation to impeachment, it is concluded that Trump will continue to be President of the USA and will almost certainly stand for re-election in 2020. In relation to patriotism, it is concluded that this will probably work in Trump’s favour, as will the issue of building the wall between the US and Mexico. Trade wars are considered but, despite the impact on the global economy, unless these significantly impact on the incomes of everyday Americans, it is considered that their influence will be benign. The Democrats are considered to have no candidate who is likely to win against Trump in the election and the probability of another Republican obtaining the nomination ahead of Trump is thought to be remote. The factor with which there is some uncertainty, is that of Trump’s hubris, his excessive pride and belief in his own powers and abilities. Examples are provided, but no conclusion is drawn in relation to this factor. It is concluded that Trump’s core supporters are unlikely to change their allegiance.
