ABSTRACT

This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policy-making across different fields.

The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policy-making. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters: the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance.

This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies, and International Relations.

The Open Access version of this book, available at https://www.routledge.com/The-Politics-and-Science-of-Prevision-Governing-and-Probing/Wenger-Jasper-Cavelty/p/book/9780367900748, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

part I|23 pages

Introduction

chapter 1|21 pages

Governing and probing the future

The politics and science of prevision
Size: 0.32 MB

part II|79 pages

Academic perspectives on future-oriented policy-making

chapter 2|18 pages

Imagined worlds

The politics of future-making in the twenty-first century
Size: 0.27 MB

chapter 3|18 pages

How to know the future – and the past (and how not)

A pragmatist perspective on foresight and hindsight 1
Size: 0.30 MB

chapter 4|10 pages

Future thinking and cognitive distortions

Key questions that guide forecasting processes
Size: 0.26 MB

chapter 5|16 pages

Thinking historically

A guide for policy
Size: 0.26 MB

chapter 6|15 pages

From predicting to forecasting

Uncertainties, scenarios, and their (un-)intended side effects
Size: 0.57 MB

part III|122 pages

Empirical perspectives across policy fields

chapter 7|15 pages

Uncertainty and precariousness at the policy–science interface

Three cases of climate-driven adaptation
Size: 0.29 MB

chapter 8|19 pages

The anticipative medicalization of life

Governing future risk and uncertainty in (global) health 1
Size: 0.32 MB

chapter 9|17 pages

Crisis, what crisis?

Uncertainty, risk, and financial markets 1
Size: 0.32 MB

chapter 10|19 pages

Imagining future biothreats

The role of popular culture
Size: 0.30 MB
Size: 0.34 MB
Size: 0.32 MB

chapter 13|14 pages

‘We do that once per day’

Cyclical futures and institutional ponderousness in predictive policing 1
Size: 0.25 MB

part IV|25 pages

Conclusion

chapter 14|23 pages

The politics and science of the future

Assembling future knowledge and integrating it into public policy and governance
Size: 0.39 MB