ABSTRACT

China is historically famous for its high demographic dividend and its huge working population, and this has driven tremendous economic growth over the past few decades. However, that population has begun to shrink and the Lewis turning point whereby surplus rural population has been absorbed into manufacturing is also approaching, leading to great change in the Chinese labor market. Will this negatively affect China’s economic growth? Can the "Middle-Income Trap" be avoided? What reforms should be made on the labor supply side? This book tackles these key questions.

This book is a collection of 14 papers presenting the author’s observations, analysis, and opinions of China’s long-term economic development from the demographic perspective, while analysing real economic problems from the past and including policy recommendations. It provides a critical reference for scholars and students interested in Chinese economic development and demographic perspectives on economic development.

part 1|72 pages

New stage of demographic transition

chapter 2|17 pages

The end of China’s demographic dividend

The perspective of potential GDP growth *

chapter 3|17 pages

Approaching a neoclassical scenario

The labor market in China after the Lewis turning point

part 2|80 pages

Avoiding the middle-income trap

chapter 5|13 pages

Is there a “middle-income trap”?

Theories, experiences, and relevance to China

chapter 6|21 pages

How to understand income inequality in China?

Seeking common ground from the debates

chapter 8|20 pages

Old age support system in China

Situations, challenges, and policy trends *

part 3|98 pages

Supply-side structural reform

chapter 10|14 pages

From quantitative issues to structural issues

An interpretation of China’s labor market

chapter 12|13 pages

China’s agricultural modernization and economies of scale

Barriers and solutions *

chapter 14|14 pages

The new normal

The macro history and grand logic of China’s economic development