ABSTRACT

Modern risk management decisions involve complex scientific and technical matters. Risk management must be concerned with consistency and stability as well as with the sometimes conflicting need for flexibility and the ability to change as new information becomes available. A conservative philosophy in risk analysis and management means overestimating risk in the face of uncertainty to provide some assurance that decisions will protect at least to the degree intended. Risk management decisions are then made without knowledge of how much conservatism is included, or with a wrong impression of the degree of conservatism. The traditional approach to risk assessment and risk management has been the estimation of risk on a rational, objective, and scientific basis and the institution of risk management on that basis. Committees, advisory panels, questionnaires, public hearings are all methods of eliciting values and attitudes of the stake holders in the risk management decision.